Market Intelligence
Supply chain analysis, geopolitical risk assessment, and demand trajectory projections for strategic metals.
Last updated: February 2026
Critical Metal Scorecards
Composite risk assessment across five dimensions for each strategic metal. Scores from 1 (low) to 10 (high).
Lithium
Cobalt
Neodymium
Gallium
Germanium
Rhenium
Antimony
Tungsten
Price Trend Sparklines
Trailing 12-month price movements, current spot prices, and 52-week trading ranges. Sources: SMM, Trading Economics, Rotterdam exchange.
Lithium
+76.2%Cobalt
+161.2%Neodymium
+95.1%Gallium
+125.0%Germanium
+42.9%Rhenium
+54.8%Antimony
+58.1%Tungsten
+32.9%Supply-Demand Balance
Global production versus consumption estimates (2024 data) and projected 2030 supply outlook. Sources: USGS, IEA, CRU Group.
Lithium
SurplusCobalt
BalancedNeodymium
SurplusGallium
SurplusGermanium
BalancedRhenium
BalancedAntimony
SurplusTungsten
BalancedDemand Trajectory by End Market
Indexed projections for critical metals demand by application sector (2024 = 100).
Sector Demand Growth
Projected growth through 2030
Market Developments Timeline
Significant events affecting strategic metal markets, 2024-2025. Sources: USGS, China MOC, EU Commission, US Trade Representative.
China Cuts Tungsten Mining Quota 6.45%
China's Ministry of Natural Resources reduced the tungsten mining quota to 58,000 tonnes (from 62,000t prior year), further tightening global supply. European APT prices reached $580-650/MTU.
Tesla & BYD Expand LFP Battery Production
Major EV manufacturers accelerate shift to cobalt-free LFP battery chemistry, reducing cobalt demand projections by approximately 10% through 2030.
EU Approves €1B Rare Earth Processing Fund
European Commission approves €1 billion funding for rare earth processing capacity outside China, with projects planned in Portugal and Estonia targeting 40% domestic processing by 2030.
Gallium Peaks at $687/kg on Rotterdam Exchange
Gallium prices hit record $687/kg on the Rotterdam commodity exchange, driven by post-ban supply shortages. Prices subsequently moderated as secondary sources and stockpiles were drawn down.
US Imposes 25% Tariffs on Chinese Cobalt & Tungsten
United States places 25% tariffs on cobalt ores and tungsten products from China as part of supply chain de-risking strategy under the Defense Production Act.
China Bans Ga, Ge, Sb, W Exports to USA
Beijing imposes comprehensive export ban on gallium, germanium, antimony, and tungsten to the United States, triggering coordinated 30-150% price spikes across all four metals.
DRC Announces 10% Export Tax on Cobalt
Democratic Republic of Congo implements a 10% export tax on cobalt concentrates, causing prices to spike 30%+ immediately. Combined with Chinese refining control, this reshapes global cobalt economics.
Regional Supply Diversification
Mining and refining concentration by geopolitical alignment. Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025.
Lithium
Mining / Refining (%)
Cobalt
Mining / Refining (%)
Neodymium
Mining / Refining (%)
Gallium
Mining / Refining (%)
Germanium
Mining / Refining (%)
Rhenium
Mining / Refining (%)
Antimony
Mining / Refining (%)
Tungsten
Mining / Refining (%)
Substitution Risk Matrix
Assessment of available substitutes for key applications. Higher difficulty ratings indicate greater strategic dependency.
| Metal | Application | Substitute | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | EV Batteries | None Available | No Substitute |
| Energy Storage | LFP Chemistry (lower density) | Difficult | |
| Ceramics & Glass | Alternative Materials | Moderate | |
| Cobalt | EV Battery Cathodes | LFP / NCMA (cobalt-free) | Moderate |
| Aerospace Alloys | Limited Alternatives | Difficult | |
| Tool Steel | Tungsten Carbide (partial) | Moderate | |
| Neodymium | EV Motor Magnets | Ferrite (lower performance) | Difficult |
| Wind Turbines | Ferrite / Induction Motors | Difficult | |
| Defense & Aerospace | None Available | No Substitute | |
| Gallium | Semiconductors (RF) | Silicon (limited perf.) | Difficult |
| Photovoltaics | Silicon (lower efficiency) | Moderate | |
| Defense RF Systems | None Available | No Substitute | |
| Germanium | Fiber Optics | Silicon Photonics | Moderate |
| IR Optics | Sapphire / Chalcogenide | Difficult | |
| Electronics & Solar | Silicon (limited perf.) | Moderate | |
| Rhenium | Aerospace Turbines | None Available | No Substitute |
| Electronics & Filaments | Limited Alternatives | Difficult | |
| Catalysts | Alternative Catalysts | Moderate | |
| Antimony | Flame Retardants | Halogenated / Phosphorous | Easy |
| Lead-Acid Batteries | Recycling Programs | Moderate | |
| Alloys | Tin / Bismuth | Moderate | |
| Tungsten | Hardmetals & Carbides | Molybdenum (partial) | Moderate |
| Aerospace Steel | Titanium Carbides (limited) | Difficult | |
| Cutting Tools | None Available | No Substitute |
Inter-Metal Price Correlation
12-month rolling price correlation. Clusters: Battery Metals (Li, Co) = 0.78; China Export Controls (Ga, Ge, Sb, W) = 0.82; Defense (Nd, Re) = 0.65.
| Li | Co | Nd | Ga | Ge | Re | Sb | W | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li | 1.00 | 0.78 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Co | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Nd | 0.45 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| Ga | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.15 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Ge | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Re | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.65 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| Sb | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| W | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.25 | 0.82 | 1.00 |
Sector Demand Breakdown
Estimated demand distribution by end-use sector for each strategic metal. Source: IEA, CRU Group, USGS (2024 data).
Lithium
Cobalt
Neodymium
Gallium
Germanium
Rhenium
Antimony
Tungsten
Geopolitical Risk Assessment
Key risk factors affecting supply security for strategic metals.
Export Restrictions
HighSubject to Chinese export controls since 2023
DRC Concentration
High70%+ production from politically unstable region
Processing Dependence
MediumChina controls majority of refining capacity
By-product Supply
MediumDependent on molybdenum/copper production
Disclaimer: The information provided in this market intelligence section is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data is sourced from USGS, IEA, SMM, Trading Economics, CRU Group, and proprietary research. Projections are estimates and actual outcomes may differ materially. Past trends are not indicative of future performance.